Why El Niño could make your food bill bigger this winter

Retail inflation in India is expected to cross 6% for October, above the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) target range, and the main reason is food. Behind it is El Niño, a warming of the Pacific Ocean that has disrupted India’s weather this year. Here is how it reaches your kitchen.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a periodic warming of the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific. It shifts wind and rainfall patterns around the world, and in most El Niño years India’s monsoon is weaker than normal, while winters can be warmer and drier.

How it has hit India this year

The monsoon was deficient across large parts of the country. Maharashtra has declared about 305 of its 358 talukas drought-hit; Tamil Nadu’s 15 major reservoirs are only about a third full, against 92% last year. The weather office expects November rain in the south to be well below normal.

That has slowed winter, or rabi, sowing, which depends on soil moisture and stored water. By early November, about 18 lakh hectares had been sown, against about 28 lakh hectares a year earlier, and wheat sowing was behind schedule.

Where prices come in

Consumer price inflation rose to 4.8% in August, from 4.5% in July, as food and fuel prices climbed, and to 5.5% in September. The rating agency ICRA expects October’s figure, due on 12 November, at about 6.1%, with food and beverage prices rising more than 8%. ICRA’s chief economist, Aditi Nayar, has said food inflation could stay above 5% for the rest of the financial year, and longer if the winter crop also suffers.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra flagged El Niño and the weak monsoon as risks to farm output, rural spending and prices at the central bank’s October policy meeting.

What the government is doing

The Centre is selling wheat from its stocks to flour millers to hold down prices, and has kept limits on how much traders can store and restrictions on exports.

What to watch

The October inflation figure on 12 November; the RBI’s next policy decision in early December; and the weather in February and March, when a heatwave can shrivel the wheat grain just before harvest, as happened in 2022.